But Goldman Sachs warns of a “false dawn”. Medicare, America’s government-financed health-care programme for the aged, will start shelling out for seniors’ prescription drugs from 2006. Defense spending may not stop at 4% of GDP, as the government’s forecasters predict, but head up towards Reagan-era levels of 5-6%. And America’s politicians are unlikely to allow the Alternative Minimum Tax, which was meant to apply only to the highest earners, to ensnare ever-greater numbers of taxpayers. Besides, though Mr. Bush does not have to face the voters again, his allies in Congress do. Thus the fists may soon start to loosen on domestic spending. Congress is already pushing for an extra $62 billion to be added to next year’s transportation bill, which traditionally provides ample opportunities to roll out the pork barrels in the name of building highways.

      According to William Gale and Peter Orszag of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank, America’s budget deficits are likely to average about 3.5% of GDP for the remainder of the decade. As the government continues to gobble up America’s scanty savings, it will crowd out the investment on which America’s prosperity depends. By 2014, reckon Messrs Gale and Orszag, the deficits will have reduced America’s wealth by roughly 20-30% of GDP.

According to the estimate of September of this year from the international monetary fund the deficit of this year of the United States will attain 631,000,000,000 US$ .The United States will absorb nearly one sixth of the total amount of save in other places in the world. The biggest promoters are Japan (159,000,000,000 US$), the old Europe-- the euro area and Denmark, Norway, Sweden (138,000,000,000 US$), Middle East (104,000,000,000US$), the other region of Asia excluding Japan. (154,000,000,000 US$)

There is no wonder of surplus in Japan and Western Europe mainland, because of wealthy and aging society. Owing to high price in petroleum, it is not too strange that those petroleum export countries in Middle East appear surplus. Surprising is the behavior of the region of Asia. This region is a region, which has the most the economic vitality in the world. Some biggest countries in that region are still poor. But this region did not absorb the capital; on the contrary, they transmit the considerable capital to the richest country in the world.

In addition to sighing absurdity in sorrow that the poor country invest in rich country there is no need for people to worry about. One of the reasons of not being anxious about is, changing a kind of circumstance would be even worse. The enormous surplus and trade deficit needs creation from both parties. Blaming world surplus and trade deficit situation completely on the United States is not meaningful. The wiser standpoint is that the United States is accepting the other local surplus in world saves. The total amount of the finance deficit of United States in public and private departments must be equal to its exterior deficit. If the United States tries to pass to tighten the currency to reduce the exterior deficit with the public finance policy, which only will cause economic decline in world.

Before the end of 2001, the United States always adjusted to comply with the private investors and their enthusiasm of the property of the United States prompted US dollars, even this kind of the enthusiasm is misled. From that time, the market has recovered the reasonableness. If it is decided by market, the market will make US dollars depreciate and increase the interest rate of the United States, to complete the adjustment. But the market does not own the freedom like this. From the end of 2001 to September, foreign governments have accumulated 1,400,000,000,000 US$ official store  .In the first half of 2002,2003 and 2004, they provided the funds for 43% of the official deficit of the amount of 1,318,000,000,000 US$, which became the biggest supporting program since history.

However, no matter how easy to comprehend, the current trend exists very big danger in fact.

First, since 1991, export quota occupying the gross domestic product in the United States always keeps constant, nearly to 10%, but import quota occupying the GDP has jumped to rise 5 percentage points.

The second, the total amount of foreign loan of the United States is roughly as 11 times as the income of export. The statistics is similar with those countries attacked by crisis of economy, such as Argentina and Brazil.

The third, with the current trend, the deficit of account will attain 8% of GDP in 2008.If so, the loan of the United States will increase and even reach 80% of the total of merchandise and services export.

The fourth, though the loan is as 3 times as the export, United States is still able to realize surplus in a little amount investment, which means the repay rate of foreign creditors is very low. The repay rate of   foreigners for holding total property was 2.5% last year. However, risk would rise as credit loan rises, particularly when currency from debtor's country takes a big move. The higher the risk is, the higher the repay of investor requests.

The fifth, the local price change must be a part of complete adjustion. The investors should be aware that the dollar depreciation must be enough big to let the price fluctuate. As the conduction effect of foreign exchange rate is very low, so the dollars will must decline significantly.

The sixth, the longer it postpones, the bigger and the more serious adjustment range is because the at that time the condition of the loan and income will be even worse, the extent of export expansion and import shrink would be larger. The adjustment will be realized by passing the rate of exchange the depreciation and reducing the expenditure. The expenditure decrease may request to increase interest rate, family bankruptcy increase, and investment tired and weak.

Finally, these are much more than only to threaten the United States, and still the whole world economy. The most direct danger is the press from the trade protection doctrine of the United States. If the United States declines continuously to the euro, this kind of pressure also will transfer Europe, the opposite shore of Atlantic Ocean. The longer adjustion postpones, the bigger the impact to right country is.

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